Performance Trends & Projections

How Projections Work

• Blended projection model — Projections are hidden for the first 7 days of the quarter. After that, up to three signals are blended: (1) Simple pace — (V ÷ Delapsed) × Dtotal, the baseline formula; (2) 7-day rolling rate — the daily increment observed over the past 7 session snapshots, projected forward from the current total; (3) Linear regression — a least-squares line fitted to all session snapshots, extrapolated to quarter-end. When all three are available the weights are 20 / 40 / 40 (simple / rolling / regression). During the first 14 days the blended result is further faded toward the Q2 pace (0% Q2 weight by day 14) to dampen early-quarter volatility. Snapshots are stored in your browser on each page visit.
• Posts multiplier — For Impressions, Reactions, Link Clicks, Shares, and Comments, the blended projection is mixed 70 / 30 with a posts-adjusted estimate: (engagement per post) × (projected posts for the quarter). This accounts for changes in posting frequency between quarters — if you post less, the raw pace understates it; the multiplier corrects the signal.
• Confidence range — Once at least 5 session snapshots are stored, each card shows a low–high range based on the standard deviation of historical simple-pace projections. A wider range indicates more day-to-day volatility in that metric.
• Followers — Uses net-new growth starting from the Q2 closing total. The pace projection estimates followers gained by end of Q3 based on (current total − Q2 actual) ÷ days elapsed × 92. Rate vs Q2 compares this daily growth rate against Q2's daily growth rate (Q2 total − Q1 total) ÷ 90. The headline shows projected total (Q2 actual + projected net new).
• Q3 Projection Timeline — Toggleable chart view showing how the projected Q3 final total has shifted over time. Each data point represents one session's snapshot, stored locally in your browser. The projection is calculated as (current total ÷ days elapsed) × 92 days. As pace changes day-to-day, the line drifts up or down — revealing whether Q3 is trending ahead of or behind expectations. A reference line shows the Q2 final total for context.
• Data is fetched live from Hootsuite via Google Apps Script and auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.